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 Eight Technology Trends for 2001 By Chris Steins and Abhijeet Chavan (December, 2000) Make room for eight new technology trends in 2001. Our intrepid editors braved the 250,000-person crowd that descended on Las Vegas in November for the annual COMDEX convention -- the Super bowl of technology conferences. The 2000 COMDEX conference, like those in preceding years, was as much hype as it was substance. In this round-up of the top eight technology trends to expect in 2001, we try to separate the wheat from the chaff. 1. Internet Appliances You don't use a car to mow your lawn; you use a lawn mower. Similarly, you don't need a multi-purpose PC to do single tasks according to manufacturers developing Internet appliances--specialized devices connected to the Internet for a single use or purpose. Manufacturers say these devices will be cheaper and more reliable than using a PC to do a multitude of different tasks. Examples include Web cams that have a built-in server for broadcasting onto the Web; Internet telephones that send voice over the Internet (known as Voice Over IP, or VOIP), and Web tablets -- wireless and keyboard-less appliances the size of a notebook that can be used to browse the Web. 2. Merging of PDA & Cell Phones Are you carrying around a pager, a cell phone, and a personal digital assistant (PDA)? These devices are beginning to merge into one handheld device. As PDAs such as Palms and Handsprings, become more powerful, and the size of mobile phones continues to get smaller, a new breed of mobile handheld device will emerge that combines both devices into one. The device will have all the features of a handheld device -- such as a contact management system, notepad, calendar, etc. -- and also a built-in telephone. An earpiece and microphone will connect to the handheld device via a wire, allowing you to navigate and take notes on your handheld device while you speak on the telephone. The expected release date for the first fully-combined devices, from companies like Nokia and Handspring is the second quarter, 2001. 3. Laptops Will Replace Desktops When it is time for your next computer purchase it is likely that you will be considering a laptop instead of a desktop. As laptop computers become more powerful and the cost of computers continues to decrease, laptops will emerge within the enterprise as the clear winner. Laptops give the knowledge worker increased flexibility to create a virtual office on the road, at home, or in the office. IBM currently has a ratio of 80% desktops to 20% laptops. They have implemented a three-year replacement plan so that by 2003 they will have 80% laptops, and 20% desktops, with the majority of remaining desktop computers dedicated to administrative staff. 4. Internationalization Expect to modify your Internet strategy to take into account the increasing diversity of Internet users. By mid-2001 there will be more Internet users from Europe than from the United States. Many companies have created websites that cater only to English-speaking audiences. An ever-increasing minority of the Web is now non-English speaking. Asian users of the Internet have increased dramatically, especially through the use of wireless devices, which are significantly more popular and widespread in Asia than in the US. 5. Wireless Tangled up in modem and network cables? By 2003 more people will connect to the Internet via wireless devices than through traditional land lines. A new standard, called Bluetooth, is leading the transition to wireless, and will begin to show up in new devices like laptops and mobile phones in the second quarter, 2001. There will no longer be a need to plug in your device to a telephone jack or network. Your device will register itself on the resident wireless network wherever you are. 6. Growth of Open Source Software While computer hardware becomes more powerful and cheaper, software products such as Microsoft Office continue to become more complex without becoming more affordable. An alternate model for software development called Open Source is rapidly gaining popularity. The most visible Open Source product is the Linux operating system which is highly popular on servers and slowly gaining a foothold on desktop computers. Another successful Open Source product is the Apache web server that powers 60 percent of the world's web servers. Open Source companies avoid reinventing the wheel by sharing software code resulting in several affordable and high-quality choices for the user. In the Open Source model, software is essentially free and companies are paid for the services they provide in supporting the software. Large vendors such as IBM and Dell have embraced Open Source software and the number of available applications continues to grow. 7. Importance of XML HTML -- or hypertext markup language - is the language in which web pages are built. The problem with HTML is that it is not context-sensitive. For example, when you do a search on the Web for "commercial property for sale in Los Angeles" you get a variety of completely irrelevant responses that may just contain some of these words. XML -- or Extensible Markup Language -- codes web pages in such a way that the information on the web page has meaning, and can be easily searched and analyzed. While this may sound like a minor technical issue, it's not. Microsoft announced at COMDEX their new ".net" (pronounced dot-net) strategy, which hinges the future of Microsoft on the adoption of XML. 8. Business First One year ago you may have been kicking yourself for not investing in that hot new dot-com startup. Being 23 and computer-savvy is no longer enough to become an instant millionaire; the market seems to have changed its focus back to "traditional" business values. As dot-coms continue to fail, there is a renewed focus on business values, such as profits and a solid business model. For the first time in several years, analysts say that the business community has put technology second to profitability and core business competence. About the Authors Chris Steins is the CEO of Urban Insight, a Los Angeles-based web development firm providing technology services to the urban planning community. Abhijeet Chavan is CTO of Urban Insight and PLANetizen a web-based information exchange for urban planning and development. |
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